Analysis and Economic Research
provides professional, unbiased and independent fiscal policy and
economic research services.
Consulting was established to address a gap in the market for independent data-driven analysis in
the world of state and local fiscal and economic policy analysis in
knowledge of state and local
government operations and practices
passion for sorting through
complicated concepts and numbers to determine what story they tell
practical solutions to
increasingly serious fiscal problems
service delivery at affordable
Consulting's most recent project: Who is Leaving Illinois
of Data on Migration Patterns in Illinois
was undertaken in light of
numerous reports that
suggest high taxes have prompted an exodus of residents from
|Update, September 1, 2016
This analysis has been updated using new
IRS data that illustrates that out-migration from Illinois has slowed,
while in-migration to Illinois has slowed even further. Click here to read the “Update.”
thank the migration expert Lyman Stone for his guidance and expertise
on this very complex topic and Carol Portman and the Illinois Fiscal
Policy Council along with Ralph Martire and the Center for Tax and
Budget Accountability for providing support for this project.
- Illinois has experienced net
out-migration every year but one since 1925.
- Illinois’ net out-migration is
overstated if international migration is ignored. Including
international migration reduces net migration out of Illinois by
- Both in-migration and out-migration
are tied to the economic cycle.
- Many migrants don’t move far.
Illinois’ largest out-migration is to Indiana. Indiana’s and
Wisconsin’s largest out-migration is to Illinois.
- Illinois is a big state with a
large population so out-migration in absolute numbers is large.
However, a larger percentage of both Indiana’s and Wisconsin’s
population moves to Illinois than vice versa.
- Net out-migration from Illinois to
Indiana and Wisconsin has declined.
- In 2011 the rate of net
- In 2014 the rate of net
out-migration jumped significantly.
We will continue to
look at the issue and invite colleagues who share an interest in
data-driven analysis to join us in this effort.